{"status":"ok","tool":"crypto_oracle","price":"free","data":{"contract":"0xbc4ca0eda7647a8ab7c2061c2e118a18a936f13d","network":"eth-mainnet","current_floor_price":5.8987,"currency":"ETH","model":"merton_jump_diffusion","days":90,"simulations":20000,"model_params":{"drift_mu":0.1,"diffusion_sigma":0.7,"jump_intensity_lambda":4.0,"jump_mean_mu_j":-0.08,"jump_vol_sigma_j":0.15},"forecast_percentiles":{"5th":2.9311,"25th":4.3723,"50th":5.655,"75th":7.2813,"95th":10.4715},"risk_metrics":{"VaR_95":2.9311,"VaR_95_pct":-50.31,"CVaR_95":2.4847,"CVaR_95_pct":-57.88},"source":"alchemy_merton_oracle","verifiability":{"provably_fair":true,"method":"Monte Carlo seeded from the public drand randomness beacon — the seed is committed publicly each round and cannot be cherry-picked. Re-fetch the round and reproduce.","beacon":"drand-league-of-entropy","round":6602777,"randomness":"95a107ad183a27275e1ec52e9585e437f66f0f0a4b7c534bab98c6d9b07a7368","verify_round_url":"https://api.drand.sh/public/6602777","exact_params":{"mu":0.1,"sigma":0.7,"lambda_jump":4.0,"mu_j":-0.08,"sigma_j":0.15,"n_sims":20000,"days":90,"current_price":5.8987,"model":"merton_jump_diffusion"},"reproduce":"rng = numpy.random.default_rng(int(randomness, 16)); Z = concat(rng.standard_normal(n_sims//2), -that) for antithetic variates; draw N=rng.poisson(lambda_jump*days/365, n_sims) and J=rng.normal(N*mu_j, sqrt(max(N,1))*sigma_j); apply the terminal Merton/GBM formula."}}}